Methodology
How official series become signals and indices — the same six steps on every page
The indices
1Sources
Official series only: central banks, statistical agencies, regulators, research institutes — listed on the Sources page and under every chart.
2Normalisation
Each series in its natural unit (ratios, shares, growth rates, prices); slower series are carried forward on the calendar of the fastest, never interpolated.
3Z-scores
Each constituent minus its mean over the sample, divided by its standard deviation, capped at ±3; constituents whose rise relieves the pressure enter inverted.
4Weighting
Equal weights: one standard deviation of movement in any constituent shifts the index by the same amount.
5Index
The average of the z-scores × 20 points, rebased to 100 on the first date every constituent exists.
6Interpretation
100 is the sample's average; +20 is one standard deviation above. The breakdown under each index shows which constituent drives the reading.
The signals
- Macro regime: each theme's change over the last quarter, divided by the standard deviation of that series' own quarterly changes — an arrow beyond half a standard deviation, flat within it.
- What changed this week: the same scoring over a week (five trading days) for daily and weekly series and a month for the monthly indices, ranked by size.
- Index readings: the level's distance from the index's own mean, in standard deviations — Low below −1, Subdued to −0.5, Normal to +0.5, Elevated to +1.5, High to +2.5, Extreme beyond.