Fiscal
Public debt, budget deficit, and who holds it — domestically and abroad
Public Debt
Total US public debt
US Public Debt
40.39 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.08 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.27 T$
1 yr
↑ +2.45 T$
Source: US Treasury
Notes
- What is happening
- Total federal debt passes $40 trillion ($40.3 trillion on the daily Treasury count of 8 October, about $2.4 trillion more than a year earlier); debt held by the public is 101% of GDP, on the CBO's path to 120% by 2036.
- Why it matters
- The stock of debt sets how many new Treasuries the market must absorb each year, and the long end of the curve is where that shows.
- What's driving it
- Structural deficits near 6% of GDP, an interest bill that now exceeds defence spending, and no consolidation on the table.
- What to watch
- Long yields: the 30-year is at 5.60% (8 October), its highest since 2002, and the 10-year at 5.22%. The term premium has crossed 1% (1.08% on 2 October): the market is starting to charge for the trajectory, and weak auctions would be the next step.
Budget Deficit
Trailing 12-month sum, negative = deficit
Budget Deficit (12mo)
-1,993 B$
1 wk
↓ -225 B$
1 mo
↓ -225 B$
1 yr
↓ -217 B$
Source: FRED
Notes
- What is happening
- The deficit over the last twelve months runs near $1.8 trillion ($1.77 trillion to August), about 5.4% of GDP, with tariff revenue below what was budgeted.
- Why it matters
- The deficit is the flow that becomes new bond supply; at this size it keeps pressure on long-term yields whatever the Fed does.
- What's driving it
- Interest costs, Social Security and Medicare growth, and tax receipts that have not kept pace; the 2025 tariffs brought in less than planned.
- What to watch
- The monthly Treasury statement: a deficit still near $2 trillion in fiscal 2027 would confirm it is structural, not cyclical.
Treasury Holders
Who holds US federal debt: Federal Reserve, foreign & international, domestic private investors, and intragovernmental holdings
Federal Reserve
4.78 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.09 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.09 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.25 T$
Foreign & International
9.36 T$
1 wk
+0.00 T$
1 mo
+0.00 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.26 T$
Domestic Private
17.83 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.15 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.15 T$
1 yr
↑ +2.18 T$
Intragovernmental
7.76 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.15 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.15 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.52 T$
Source: FRED
Quarter-over-quarter change
Source: FRED
Notes
- What is happening
- Foreign holdings of Treasuries stand at $9.4 trillion on the quarterly count (Q1 2026); the monthly TIC data to July show Japan and China trimming while the UK adds; the domestic private sector, at $17.7 trillion in the first quarter, absorbs most of the new issuance.
- Why it matters
- Who holds the debt says how robust demand is: domestic buyers are price-sensitive where central banks and foreign reserves were not.
- What's driving it
- The Fed stopped buying, foreign reserve managers are diversifying, so money funds, banks and households take up the slack, at a price.
- What to watch
- The domestic private share: the higher it climbs, the more each auction depends on yield to clear.
Foreign Holders of US Treasuries
The 4 largest foreign holders, out of the 9 countries the US Treasury highlights (Treasury International Capital survey)
Japan
1.07 T$
1 wk
↓ -0.04 T$
1 mo
↓ -0.04 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.12 T$
United Kingdom
1.01 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.01 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.01 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.11 T$
China
0.59 T$
1 wk
↓ -0.03 T$
1 mo
↓ -0.03 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.11 T$
France
0.36 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.02 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.02 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.03 T$
Source: TIC (FRED)
Notes
- What is happening
- Japan remains the largest foreign creditor at about $1.1 trillion in July, the UK holds $1.0 trillion, and China has cut to around $620 billion, its lowest since 2008 and half its 2013 peak.
- Why it matters
- Foreign official demand was the marginal buyer of the 2000s and 2010s; its retreat shifts the bond market's price-setting to private investors.
- What's driving it
- China's diversification away from the dollar, Japanese selling to defend the yen, and the UK's role as a custody hub for others.
- What to watch
- China's holdings falling below $600 billion, or a Japanese sale in a weak-yen quarter: either would land on the long end.
Public Debt / GDP
US public debt as a share of GDP
Public Debt / GDP
121.2%
1 wk
↓ -1.4%
1 mo
↓ -1.4%
1 yr
↑ +2.4%
Source: FRED / US Treasury
Notes
- What is happening
- Debt to GDP was 121.2% at the end of June, and about 124% on the daily Treasury count of 8 October against second-quarter GDP; the CBO projects the publicly held part climbing from 101% today to 175% within two decades absent reform.
- Why it matters
- Debt against output is the sustainability measure that survives inflation and growth; no large economy has serviced this ratio at today's rates for long.
- What's driving it
- Deficits above growth, and an interest bill on course to double to $2.1 trillion by 2036, which feeds the ratio it measures.
- What to watch
- Whether nominal growth stays above the average interest rate on the debt: the day it does not, the ratio compounds on its own.