Liquidity
Fed balance sheet, composition, net liquidity, and global central bank liquidity
Fed Balance Sheet
Composition: Treasuries, MBS, and other assets
Fed Balance Sheet
6.76 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.01 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.02 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.16 T$
Treasuries
4.57 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.00 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.02 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.37 T$
MBS
1.90 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.00 T$
1 mo
↓ -0.02 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.19 T$
Other Assets
0.29 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.00 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.01 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.02 T$
Source: FRED
Month-over-month change
Source: FRED
Notes
- What is happening
- The Fed's balance sheet has been flat near $6.75 trillion (7 October) since quantitative tightening ended in December 2025; the reverse repo buffer that used to absorb Treasury cash swings is drained.
- Why it matters
- Its size sets how much liquidity the financial system has to work with, and it is the first thing risk assets read when it starts growing again.
- What's driving it
- Treasuries and mortgage bonds rolling off were replaced only enough to keep bank reserves near 9% of GDP; the reverse repo facility has emptied as money funds moved into bills.
- What to watch
- Any resumption of balance-sheet growth, floated as the way to hold reserves at 9% of GDP, would be the dovish signal risk assets are waiting for.
Fed Net Liquidity
Reverse Repo, TGA, and computed net liquidity (Balance sheet − RRP − TGA)
Reverse Repo (RRP)
0 B$
1 wk
↓ -0 B$
1 mo
↓ -5 B$
1 yr
↓ -7 B$
Treasury General Account (TGA)
883 B$
1 wk
↑ +3 B$
1 mo
↑ +0 B$
1 yr
↑ +76 B$
Net Liquidity
5,872 B$
1 wk
↑ +5 B$
1 mo
↑ +8 B$
1 yr
↑ +92 B$
Source: FRED
Notes
- What is happening
- Net liquidity, the balance sheet minus the Treasury's account and the reverse repo, sits near $5.87 trillion (9 October), roughly flat on the year (+1.5%); the Treasury's account has come back down to about $880 billion after September's tax receipts.
- Why it matters
- It approximates the cash actually available to markets and has long led Bitcoin and equities.
- What's driving it
- With the reverse repo empty, every move in the Treasury General Account passes straight into bank reserves instead of being cushioned as it was from 2022 to 2025.
- What to watch
- Spikes in Treasury issuance and tax dates now hit net liquidity directly; a sustained fall below $5.5 trillion would be the tightening signal.
Global Liquidity
Fed + ECB + BOJ, in dollars
The UK (BOE) and China (PBOC) are not included: the Bank of England has had no active FRED series since 2014, and the PBOC does not publish a freely accessible balance sheet series.
Fed (US)
6.76 T$
1 wk
↑ +0.01 T$
1 mo
↑ +0.02 T$
1 yr
↑ +0.16 T$
ECB (Eurozone)
6.65 T$
1 wk
↓ -0.04 T$
1 mo
↓ -0.22 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.64 T$
BOJ (Japan)
3.91 T$
1 wk
↓ -0.14 T$
1 mo
↓ -0.14 T$
1 yr
↓ -0.83 T$
Total (Fed + ECB + BOJ)
17.31 T$
1 wk
↓ -0.04 T$
1 mo
↓ -0.19 T$
1 yr
↓ -1.21 T$
Source: FRED
Notes
- What is happening
- The Fed, ECB and BOJ balance sheets in dollars are shrinking together, $17.4 trillion in total on 7 October against $17.7 trillion in mid-September: the Fed is flat, the ECB keeps shrinking, the BOJ is slowly trimming — and the dollar's 3% rise in a month shrinks the latter two further once converted.
- Why it matters
- Global central-bank liquidity is the macro driver most often cited for equities and Bitcoin; three banks withdrawing at once is a headwind no single one can offset.
- What's driving it
- The ECB has stopped reinvesting its asset-purchase programmes; the BOJ is normalising after a decade of yield-curve control; the Fed paused rather than reversed.
- What to watch
- Whether the Fed resumes balance-sheet growth while the other two keep withdrawing — that decides the sign of the total.
Bank Reserves / GDP
Reserve balances banks hold at the Fed, relative to the size of the economy
Bank Reserves / GDP
9.3%
1 wk
↓ -0.0%
1 mo
↑ +0.1%
1 yr
↓ -0.2%
Source: FRED
Notes
- What is happening
- Bank reserves at the Fed stand at 9.3% of GDP, just above the 9% level the Fed treats as the floor of its "ample reserves" framework.
- Why it matters
- Below that floor, short-term funding markets seize up, as the repo market did in September 2019.
- What's driving it
- Quantitative tightening drained reserves until December 2025; since then a flat balance sheet against a growing economy erodes the ratio slowly (−0.4 points on the year, revised GDP included).
- What to watch
- The Fed has said it will grow the balance sheet again to hold 9%; the first such purchases, and any repo-rate spike before them, are the tell.